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      印度貧民窟已“群體免疫”?新冠抗體陽性人數已過半

      印度貧民窟已“群體免疫”?新冠抗體陽性人數已過半

      Naomi Xu Elegant 2020年07月31日
      他們似乎已在不經意間實現了“群體免疫”。

      今年7月的一項調查發現,在印度金融中心城市孟買,其部分地區已有約57%的居民獲得新冠病毒抗體。他們似乎已在不經意間實現了“群體免疫”,免受新冠病毒的侵擾。

      此次調查對孟買三個區域的6936位居民進行了檢測。其中,有57%的居民檢測結果呈新冠抗體陽性——該抗體是人體免疫系統在對抗新冠病毒時分泌的一種蛋白質,呈陽性就代表新冠病毒感染者已獲得痊愈。

      被調查地區包括印度一些最大的貧民窟,其中的達拉維貧民窟居民數量高達100萬,人口密度是美國曼哈頓的10倍以上。

      據調查結果,在孟買人口較為年輕化的區域,新冠死亡率在0.05%到0.1%之間。而孟買目前整體平均死亡率約為5.6%,確診病例逾11萬,在冊死亡人數為6180人。

      對此,印度流行病學研究所科學顧問委員會主席賈亞普拉卡什?穆里耶表示:“孟買貧民窟有可能已經獲得群體免疫?!?

      群體免疫,是解決新冠病毒大流行的一種方式,政府不必采取任何封鎖限制措施,只需任人們照常生活,讓病毒傳播即可。理論上講,人們會經歷從染病、康復到免疫的一系列過程。在此期間,病毒的傳播會逐步減緩,而已免疫者亦可保護未免疫者安全。

      芝加哥大學研究人員曾在5月發表的論文中預估,真正達成新冠群體免疫至少需要67%的人口免疫率。梅奧醫學中心也估算,美國至少要達到70%的人口免疫率,才能實現群體免疫。當然,70%的新冠疫苗接種率,也同樣可實現此目標。

      對于孟買受調查區域的高免疫率,其并非有意而為,相反是“不得已而為之”。以達拉維貧民窟為例,其人口密度極高、住房空間有限,根本不具備保持社交距離的條件——一個八口之家要擠在不足10平米的房間內生活,一間廁所最多有80人共用。

      刻意達成群體免疫的做法也備受爭議。因為它將使最易感新冠的人群面臨更大的死亡風險,例如老人、免疫低下者。今年3月,英國政府曾考慮過這一策略,但面對新冠死亡人數不斷攀升、公眾反對如潮的局面,英政府最終選擇放棄。

      瑞典是選擇實行群體免疫策略的國家,因此,其新冠死亡率比實施封鎖防疫的鄰國都要高。今年5月調查顯示,瑞典首都斯德哥爾摩僅約有14%的人攜帶新冠抗體,遠低于孟買調查顯示的免疫率。

      目前,印度新冠感染人數增速居全世界首位,但在過去幾周,接受調查的幾處孟買貧民窟感染人數卻在急劇下降。近期的兩項研究也預測,新德里和孟買兩城市將各有四分之一的人口獲得新冠免疫。

      美國紐約部分地區的新冠免疫率可能已經比肩孟買——紐約皇后區某診所中,超過68%的人都已產生新冠抗體。不過,若紐約出現第二波疫情,抗體水平對感染率的影響將不得而知。(財富中文網)

      編譯:杜心邈

      今年7月的一項調查發現,在印度金融中心城市孟買,其部分地區已有約57%的居民獲得新冠病毒抗體。他們似乎已在不經意間實現了“群體免疫”,免受新冠病毒的侵擾。

      此次調查對孟買三個區域的6936位居民進行了檢測。其中,有57%的居民檢測結果呈新冠抗體陽性——該抗體是人體免疫系統在對抗新冠病毒時分泌的一種蛋白質,呈陽性就代表新冠病毒感染者已獲得痊愈。

      被調查地區包括印度一些最大的貧民窟,其中的達拉維貧民窟居民數量高達100萬,人口密度是美國曼哈頓的10倍以上。

      據調查結果,在孟買人口較為年輕化的區域,新冠死亡率在0.05%到0.1%之間。而孟買目前整體平均死亡率約為5.6%,確診病例逾11萬,在冊死亡人數為6180人。

      對此,印度流行病學研究所科學顧問委員會主席賈亞普拉卡什?穆里耶表示:“孟買貧民窟有可能已經獲得群體免疫?!?

      群體免疫,是解決新冠病毒大流行的一種方式,政府不必采取任何封鎖限制措施,只需任人們照常生活,讓病毒傳播即可。理論上講,人們會經歷從染病、康復到免疫的一系列過程。在此期間,病毒的傳播會逐步減緩,而已免疫者亦可保護未免疫者安全。

      芝加哥大學研究人員曾在5月發表的論文中預估,真正達成新冠群體免疫至少需要67%的人口免疫率。梅奧醫學中心也估算,美國至少要達到70%的人口免疫率,才能實現群體免疫。當然,70%的新冠疫苗接種率,也同樣可實現此目標。

      對于孟買受調查區域的高免疫率,其并非有意而為,相反是“不得已而為之”。以達拉維貧民窟為例,其人口密度極高、住房空間有限,根本不具備保持社交距離的條件——一個八口之家要擠在不足10平米的房間內生活,一間廁所最多有80人共用。

      刻意達成群體免疫的做法也備受爭議。因為它將使最易感新冠的人群面臨更大的死亡風險,例如老人、免疫低下者。今年3月,英國政府曾考慮過這一策略,但面對新冠死亡人數不斷攀升、公眾反對如潮的局面,英政府最終選擇放棄。

      瑞典是選擇實行群體免疫策略的國家,因此,其新冠死亡率比實施封鎖防疫的鄰國都要高。今年5月調查顯示,瑞典首都斯德哥爾摩僅約有14%的人攜帶新冠抗體,遠低于孟買調查顯示的免疫率。

      目前,印度新冠感染人數增速居全世界首位,但在過去幾周,接受調查的幾處孟買貧民窟感染人數卻在急劇下降。近期的兩項研究也預測,新德里和孟買兩城市將各有四分之一的人口獲得新冠免疫。

      美國紐約部分地區的新冠免疫率可能已經比肩孟買——紐約皇后區某診所中,超過68%的人都已產生新冠抗體。不過,若紐約出現第二波疫情,抗體水平對感染率的影響將不得而知。(財富中文網)

      編譯:杜心邈

      Around 57% of people across parts of India's financial hub of Mumbai have coronavirus antibodies, a July study found, indicating that the population may have inadvertently achieved the controversial 'herd immunity' protection from the coronavirus.

      A survey of 6,936 people living in three Mumbai districts found that 57% of the people tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, the proteins produced by the body's immune system to fight off disease and an indicator that a person has been infected by and recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

      The surveyed areas included some of India's biggest slums, including one slum, Dharavi, where one million people reside and the population density is more than 10 times that of Manhattan.

      According to the survey results, the death rate in the surveyed areas, where the population skews young, is between 0.05% and 0.1%. Mumbai’s overall death rate is currently around 5.6%, with over 110,000 confirmed cases and 6,180 recorded deaths.

      “Mumbai’s slums may have reached herd immunity,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of India’s National Institute of Epidemiology.

      Herd immunity is an approach to the coronavirus pandemic where, instead of instituting lockdowns and other restrictions to slow infections, authorities allow daily life to go on as normal, letting the disease spread. In theory, enough people will become infected, recover, and gain immunity that the spread will slow on its own and people who are not immune will be protected by the immunity of those who are.

      University of Chicago researchers estimated in a paper published in May that achieving herd immunity from COVID-19 would require 67% of people to be immune to the disease. Mayo Clinic estimates 70% of the U.S. population will need to be immune for the U.S. to achieve herd immunity, which can also be achieved by vaccinating that proportion of a population.

      The high level of immunity in the surveyed areas in Mumbai was not by design. People in Dharavi, for example, live in extremely close quarters where social distancing is often functionally impossible—families of eight live together in 100-square-foot rooms and up to 80 people share use of a single toilet.

      Deliberate herd immunity is a controversial approach because it puts people most vulnerable to COVID-19—the elderly and immunocompromised—at a greater risk of death. The U.K. government considered the strategy in March, but changed tack when the country's death toll started climbing, drawing public criticism.

      Sweden chose to pursue the strategy, and it's recorded a higher death rate than neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns. Around 14% of people in Sweden's capital, Stockholm, had coronavirus antibodies in May, much lower than the share recorded by the Mumbai survey, which was conducted by municipal authorities and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, a public research university in Mumbai.

      Coronavirus cases in India are currently growing at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world, but the slums where the survey was conducted have recorded steep drops in infection numbers in the last few weeks. Separate surveys of people in New Delhi and Mumbai recently have estimated that around a quarter of the total population of each city may have coronavirus antibodies.

      Some parts of New York City may have reached levels of immunity similar to those recorded in the Mumbai survey. Over 68% of people at a clinic in one Queens neighborhood had coronavirus antibodies. It's still unknown how those antibody levels will affect infection rates in the event of a second wave in New York.

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